Tom Neff passed away on July 11. Many of you might know of him as the father of the HEU Deal, and this was certainly the highlight of a long and accomplished career. But to me, Tom was more than that. He was a friend and the world’s best sounding board when it came to thinking about nuclear issues and other subjects as well.
I met Tom in the late 1970s, shortly after I started my career in the nuclear industry, so I had known him for about 45 years. One of my first interactions with him was when he was doing research on his book, The International Uranium Market. One reviewer noted this book was a “triumph of clarity,” which is a phrase that could describe Tom’s other writings, and he was a prolific writer.
Even though Tom and I worked on some projects together and would review each other’s writings, I believe that I only wrote one article with him. The article, which was written shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, dealt with the prospect of increasing nuclear fuel trade between the United States and the then Soviet Union, capitalizing on plentiful and relatively cheap Soviet centrifuge enrichment capacity to enrich abundant U.S. government depleted uranium tails.
The article contained one rather prophetic phrase, “…even obsolete warheads can be blended down to reactor levels (a kilogram of weapons-grade uranium contains the same enrichment as about fifty kilograms of reactor fuel).” Even though I was the lead author of the article, Tom was the one who added this phrase, as he saw the nonproliferation potential, as well as the economic benefit, of such a weapons’ conversion.
A little less than two years later, Tom wrote an op-ed for the New York Times entitled “A Grand Uranium Bargain,” proposing what later would become the HEU Deal, where the highly enriched uranium from 20,000+ Russian nuclear warheads was blended down for fuel for use in commercial reactors. The op-ed discussed the complexities of such a deal, but also made a convincing case for the benefits. As a testament to the importance of this initiative, Tom’s obituary appeared in the New York Times this past weekend.
Around the inception of the HEU Deal, I found myself running UxC, while Tom was, in essence, overseeing the HEU Deal, shepherding it through many difficulties. We stayed in touch, and I was able to observe the tremendous effort that he put into keeping the HEU Deal moving forward. I considered myself fortunate to have a front-row seat to the implementation and evolution of this historic endeavor.
At the end of the HEU Deal, I interviewed Tom for the Ux Weekly (Ux Weekly 27-50, December 16, 2013) as I thought that this milestone should be recognized and celebrated. The interview provides some insight into the incredible complexity of the deal, although it just scratched the service. Tom did receive accolades for his accomplishments with the HEU Deal, including the 1997 Leo Szilard Award for proposing the deal and working to keep it on track.
The HEU Deal was obviously a major nonproliferation initiative, maybe the most significant one ever, but it was also important for nuclear power. For a long time, the nuclear industry shied away from the nuclear weapons/nuclear power nexus, as there was no benefit in having nuclear power linked to nuclear weapons. However, the HEU Deal changed this perspective, as it was peaceful nuclear energy that was able to finance the destruction of Russian nuclear warheads by consuming the end product of the HEU conversion, basically turning the nuclear weapons/nuclear power paradigm on its head.
The movie Oppenheimer, about the making of the atomic bomb, was all the rage last year. While the creation of the bomb was an historic and consequential development, so was the “unmaking” of 20,000+ nuclear warheads. The HEU Deal was not marked by a massive, attention-getting, explosion (the point of the deal was to reduce the chance of such explosions in the future); it instead resulted in electricity produced from erstwhile Russian nuclear weapons lighting up millions of homes in the U.S. I’m sure Oppenheimer, Eisenhower, and scores of other scientists and leaders who wanted to reduce the threat of nuclear weapons while promoting peaceful nuclear energy would have been pleased with what Tom accomplished. I’m sure Alfred Nobel would have as well.
This article was originally published in the July 22, 2024 issue of the Ux Weekly.
Jeff Combs is founder, owner, and Chairman of UxC, LLC (UxC) and is a leading expert in the nuclear fuel market, with over 50 years of experience providing economic analysis and forecasting for the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. He has extensive and varied expertise, overseeing UxC market reports, providing strategic consulting to major commercial companies in the nuclear fuel industry, and advising governments and international organizations on market and policy issues. Under his management, UxC has grown to become the world’s pre-eminent nuclear fuel market information and analysis company, issuing reports and publishing prices for all front-end nuclear fuel markets. In 2007, UxC teamed with CME/NYMEX to introduce the world’s first uranium futures contract. That same year UxC began reporting on the backend of the fuel cycle. In 2018, Mr. Combs created the atompeace.org website to advance understanding of peaceful uses of the atom in today’s world. During his career, Mr. Combs has presented papers at a variety of nuclear industry and energy economics conferences throughout the world. In addition, he has had his work published in academic and public policy journals. Mr. Combs earned a bachelor's degree in Economics at the University of Virginia, where he also completed his doctoral course work in economics. He is a charter member of the International Association of Energy Economics and is a member of the American Nuclear Society.