In 2021, Allison Macfarlane penned “Nuclear Energy Will Not Be the Solution to Climate Change” in Foreign Affairs. Macfarlane identified climate change as an existential crisis and argued that nuclear energy could not make any meaningful contribution to abate climate change in a timely manner, stating, “… given the economic trends in existing plants and those under construction, nuclear power cannot positively impact climate change in the next ten years or more.” However, recent experience demonstrates the shortcoming of this assertion.
Since that time, there have been other existential crises, when viewed from a country or industry standpoint. One of these was created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the fallout from which called into question energy security due to Russia’s outsized role in energy supplies for some countries. Another challenging situation is the rapid increase in electricity demand associated with the push for artificial intelligence. Both situations have short-term time horizons for action.
Whether artificial intelligence is a crisis for all humanity or not (there are differing views on this), it is a crisis for individual companies (and their associated industries) that must invest in artificial intelligence to successfully compete in the future. Moreover, the current U.S. Administration views it as an existential crisis on a country level as it seeks to win the AI race against actual and would-be adversaries.
Nuclear energy’s response to these crises has been noteworthy. Existing reactors are receiving power uprates and life extensions. Dormant reactors are being resurrected. The U.S. Department of Energy is overseeing an effort to add 2.5 GWe of additional nuclear capacity by the end of 2027 along with 2.5 GWe by 2029 from the existing reactor fleet. Also, due largely to energy security concerns, other countries are extending the lives of operating reactors and bringing idled reactors back online sooner than planned, as well as restarting reactors that have reached the end of their licenses, as they re-embrace nuclear power as part of their energy mix. Thus, there are a variety of actions that can be taken and are being taken in the near term to boost nuclear power output.
There are other actions that are being taken to speed up the introduction of new reactor technologies in the U.S., including streamlining and relaxing reactor regulations. These are the types of measures to be expected where an existential crisis exists. While there may be costs associated with these actions, these costs must be compared with the costs of failing to act, such as energy poverty from insufficient power capacity or falling behind in the race to develop AI. The same calculation is at play when it comes to climate change: the necessary investments to stave off climate change can be and have been substantial, but the calculus is that a much higher cost will be avoided in the future by incurring these costs now.
High tech companies are interested in clean, environmentally friendly energy, so their choices to power AI support climate change initiatives when possible. However, they also need continuous, 24/7, electricity, and here they have turned to natural gas and available nuclear power in the short term. For the future, nuclear energy is the clear choice since it provides the continuous, environmentally friendly electricity they desire. As technology companies, they have been willing to embrace new nuclear energy technologies and have the financial wherewithal and political clout to do so. Furthermore, there is now strong bipartisan support in the U.S. with the Trump Administration to help fund and expedite these technologies, along with the previous administration’s support for climate change initiatives.
Nuclear energy has been able to increase its output in response to various crises in the near term with its existing fleet of reactors. Operating reactors can have their output boosted and their lives extended. In addition, there are a group of reactors that have been idled, scheduled to be shut down, and already shut down that can add to nuclear power capacity in the near term through their continued operation. Beyond this, the push to develop and install new reactors has been accelerated, ensuring the expansion in nuclear power capacity can be extended.
Jeff Combs is founder, owner, and Chairman of UxC, LLC (UxC) and is a leading expert in the nuclear fuel market, with over 50 years of experience providing economic analysis and forecasting for the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. He has extensive and varied expertise, overseeing UxC market reports, providing strategic consulting to major commercial companies in the nuclear fuel industry, and advising governments and international organizations on market and policy issues. Under his management, UxC has grown to become the world’s pre-eminent nuclear fuel market information and analysis company, issuing reports and publishing prices for all front-end nuclear fuel markets. In 2007, UxC teamed with CME/NYMEX to introduce the world’s first uranium futures contract. That same year UxC began reporting on the backend of the fuel cycle. In 2018, Mr. Combs created the atompeace.org website to advance understanding of peaceful uses of the atom in today’s world. During his career, Mr. Combs has presented papers at a variety of nuclear industry and energy economics conferences throughout the world. In addition, he has had his work published in academic and public policy journals. Mr. Combs earned a bachelor's degree in Economics at the University of Virginia, where he also completed his doctoral course work in economics. He is a charter member of the International Association of Energy Economics and is a member of the American Nuclear Society.