We are in an interesting but troubling juncture when it comes to all things nuclear. This might be the most remarkable year ever for nuclear power – its full potential is being recognized, buoyed by greater appreciation of its contribution to energy and environmental security. To illustrate the extent of activity on the peaceful nuclear front, in one issue of the Ux Weekly this year, we had over a hundred news briefs on nuclear energy and the nuclear fuel market. In addition, a new class of champion has arisen in the form of large tech companies that seek consistent and environmentally friendly electricity sources to power data centers that support the development of AI. The drive for nuclear energy is so strong that even “dead” reactors are being resurrected.
At the same time, the pursuit of nuclear weapons is experiencing a similar surge. Russia is developing new hypersonic missiles to deliver nuclear warheads and threatening to use them in Ukraine or any country that intercedes in the war with Ukraine. China is expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal, and nuclear weapons treaties are in jeopardy. As Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi wrote in Foreign Affairs, “Nuclear Weapons are back with a vengeance.” In short, the future for nuclear energy has never looked as bright, but the future for nuclear weapons (and the use thereof) has perhaps never been so frightening.
When looked at from the context of Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace speech, which just marked its 72nd anniversary, it was not supposed to happen this way. As countries aspired to harness atomic energy for peaceful purposes, the hope was that this would lead them to abandon the atom’s military applications. This transition would be due to the reallocation of financial resources away from weapons development towards peaceful nuclear applications and the benefits that it would bring.
The HEU deal between the United States and Russia was a promising development in this regard. Highly enriched uranium from 20,000+ Russian nuclear weapons was blended down for use in commercial reactors that were an outgrowth of the atoms for peace movement. The deal was the literal fulfillment of Eisenhower’s exhortation related to countries with nuclear weapons “to strip its military casing and adapt it to the arts of peace.”
As the HEU deal progressed, Russia focused on expanding its peaceful nuclear footprint, by building up its nuclear energy infrastructure and increasing its export of nuclear reactors and the fuel to go along with it. Russia became the largest exporter of nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel in the world, extending the benefits of nuclear energy to new countries.
Russia veered off this hopeful trajectory when it invaded Ukraine, beginning a series of developments that turned the message of atoms for peace on its head. It was not just that Putin started to rattle his nuclear saber, but countries took note of the consequences of turning over their nuclear weapons, as Ukraine did, or forgoing the development of these weapons, undermining the nonproliferation regime. The safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine has also come under question with the Russian invasion.
Russia is not the only country where this divergence from the atoms for peace path is taking place, but it can be considered the poster child for this troubling development. China has the world’s most ambitious nuclear energy expansion program but is also expanding and modernizing its nuclear weapons arsenal, as mentioned above. The United States is also looking to expand nuclear energy in its pursuit of AI and energy security while modernizing its nuclear force. While peaceful nuclear energy is moving full force ahead, the fact that nuclear’s military side is also expanding suggests that a course correction is sorely needed.
Jeff Combs is founder, owner, and Chairman of UxC, LLC (UxC) and is a leading expert in the nuclear fuel market, with over 50 years of experience providing economic analysis and forecasting for the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. He has extensive and varied expertise, overseeing UxC market reports, providing strategic consulting to major commercial companies in the nuclear fuel industry, and advising governments and international organizations on market and policy issues. Under his management, UxC has grown to become the world’s pre-eminent nuclear fuel market information and analysis company, issuing reports and publishing prices for all front-end nuclear fuel markets. In 2007, UxC teamed with CME/NYMEX to introduce the world’s first uranium futures contract. That same year UxC began reporting on the backend of the fuel cycle. In 2018, Mr. Combs created the atompeace.org website to advance understanding of peaceful uses of the atom in today’s world. During his career, Mr. Combs has presented papers at a variety of nuclear industry and energy economics conferences throughout the world. In addition, he has had his work published in academic and public policy journals. Mr. Combs earned a bachelor's degree in Economics at the University of Virginia, where he also completed his doctoral course work in economics. He is a charter member of the International Association of Energy Economics and is a member of the American Nuclear Society.