Things look very bright for nuclear power these days. Countries around the world are re-embracing or at least reconsidering nuclear energy in light of developments over the past several years. Opinion polls show nuclear energy is near its all-time highs in favorability. In the U.S., President Trump issued a series of executive orders calling for the quadrupling nuclear power in the U.S. by 2050.
This all sounds great, but is it realistic? Over its history, the nuclear power industry has been dogged by expectations that were too great to be met. It started with “too cheap to meter,” which was attributed to a speech by Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) Chairman Lewis L. Strauss in 1954. Apparently, this phrase was a reference to fusion but was not identified as such and thus became associated with fission power. Antinuclear groups and critics of nuclear power have repeatedly used this phrase to undercut the promise of nuclear energy, although it is less of an issue now.
While President Trump’s executive orders seem ambitious, when I came into the industry 50 years ago, forecasts of U.S. nuclear power expansion were much greater. In 1974, the AEC issued a report, Nuclear Power Growth 1974-2000 (Wash-1139) that projected installed nuclear capacity in the U.S. by the year 2000 to be – wait for it – 1,200 GWe in the “Most Likely” case. Moreover, when this report was published, there were almost 200 reactors ordered, announced, and planned in the U.S. This was in addition to the 22 reactors that were already operating at the time.
Current U.S. Energy Secretary Wright has called the urgency to pursue artificial intelligence (AI) in the U.S. the Manhattan Project 2.0. However, I would give it a moniker of Manhattan Project 3.0, as 2.0 occurred when the initial push for nuclear power was made. Bob Nininger, the head of the division at the Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) that I joined, was part of the original Manhattan Project, charged with finding uranium for the U.S. atomic bomb program. The new task at hand was to secure sufficient uranium supplies to meet the robust growth in peaceful U.S. nuclear energy that was forecast. To this end, Bob wrote Minerals for Atomic Energy, which was published in 1954 at the dawn of peaceful nuclear energy. While at ERDA, Bob oversaw the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program, where the entire U.S. was assessed for uranium deposits during the 1974-1980 period.
Of course, the U.S. never came close to meeting the 1,200 GWe target despite having the largest installed nuclear power capacity in the world and experiencing a rapid growth rate in the 1970s. The retrenchment of nuclear power in the U.S. after this promising start has had a long-lasting impact on attitudes for future success which persist today. On top of this, we keep hearing the term “renaissance” applied to nuclear energy, but this word has been recycled more in this industry than nuclear fuel.
With this background, the question is whether the optimism associated with President Trump’s goals is unwarranted. Not necessarily. In the past 50 years, the value proposition for nuclear energy has held up and today the imperatives for nuclear energy have never been greater, especially in the U.S. In addition to the need for energy security, which propelled the initial push into nuclear, we now can add climate security and national security, the latter boosted by the role of nuclear energy supporting the development of AI. Over the next 25 years, nuclear power could play a major role in meeting these unprecedented challenges.
If you believe that AI will continue to grow and the U.S. manufacturing industry will rebound to desired levels, then enormous amounts of electricity will be needed in the U.S. This electricity needs to be reliable and environmentally friendly; nuclear, above all other energy sources, fits this bill. Nuclear power capacity may not quadruple in the U.S. by 2050, but substantial growth will likely be required. To look at this another way, if this is to be the golden age in America along with U.S. energy dominance as President Trump asserts, it almost certainly will be the golden age of U.S. nuclear energy as well.
Other structural changes support the future expansion of nuclear energy in the U.S. Financing and regulation proved to be strong headwinds for U.S. nuclear power in the 1980s and beyond. In addition to federal government funding, you now have major tech companies with valuations greater than some countries considering investing billions in nuclear energy. Regulatory reforms involving the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and other initiatives seek to accelerate the licensing and construction of new plants. State legislatures are passing laws and laying the groundwork to host new nuclear capacity or “revive” old nuclear plants in their states.
Not only does the technological revolution require more output from nuclear power, but it supports the expansion of nuclear energy as well. This is seen in the application of AI to speed up the licensing and construction of new reactors and 3D printing and other innovations to help in production of reactor components.
While there may not be a large backlog of reactor orders in the U.S. at present like when I first came into the industry, it does not mean that the groundwork for the expansion of nuclear energy output is not being laid. To this end, existing reactors are getting uprates and life extensions, and previously shuttered reactors are being prepared for restart. Importantly, a new generation of advanced reactor types is nearing construction with many future units planned.
In summary, there are more reasons today to expand nuclear energy as well as more support, both in public appreciation, financial backing, and regulatory reform, than there has been in a long time. In addition, nuclear energy is the perfect fit with the technological advancements that are underway. If we are indeed at the beginning of a new Manhattan Project where AI is concerned, nuclear energy will be an indispensable component of this mission.
This article was originally published in the July 7, 2025 issue of the Ux Weekly.
Jeff Combs is founder, owner, and Chairman of UxC, LLC (UxC) and is a leading expert in the nuclear fuel market, with over 50 years of experience providing economic analysis and forecasting for the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. He has extensive and varied expertise, overseeing UxC market reports, providing strategic consulting to major commercial companies in the nuclear fuel industry, and advising governments and international organizations on market and policy issues. Under his management, UxC has grown to become the world’s pre-eminent nuclear fuel market information and analysis company, issuing reports and publishing prices for all front-end nuclear fuel markets. In 2007, UxC teamed with CME/NYMEX to introduce the world’s first uranium futures contract. That same year UxC began reporting on the backend of the fuel cycle. In 2018, Mr. Combs created the atompeace.org website to advance understanding of peaceful uses of the atom in today’s world. During his career, Mr. Combs has presented papers at a variety of nuclear industry and energy economics conferences throughout the world. In addition, he has had his work published in academic and public policy journals. Mr. Combs earned a bachelor's degree in Economics at the University of Virginia, where he also completed his doctoral course work in economics. He is a charter member of the International Association of Energy Economics and is a member of the American Nuclear Society.